Wed Oct 23 2024, by Tyler Gardner
Goldman Sachs Predicts Low S&P Returns for the Next Decade
Apparently, Goldman Sachs just announced that the S&P's return over the next decade will only average 3% per year. And here's the only thing I have to say about that.
I'm Tyler, I'm a former financial advisor and portfolio manager, and now I make financial content for free so that you don't have to pay for it.
Putting aside the absurdity and arrogance of predicting the next 10 years of stock returns, when the majority of professional money managers can't predict what will happen to a stock in the next 10 seconds, let's assume that stocks tend to return 8% per year on average over the long term. Because they do.
The long term is typically defined as anything over 20 years. So if the last decade returned 13%, what number could possibly work for the next decade so the 20-year average would indeed be 8%? Huh. Yes? Goldman?
That's right. 3%. Stock returns will, in fact, revert to their mean as they've done throughout history. Goldman gets two gold stars for basic algebra and stating the obvious.
Not to mention, if you're relying on stock returns over a 10-year time horizon, you shouldn't be invested in stocks in the first place. Goldman Sachs, huh?
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